The hottest weather will become the dominant facto

Weather will become the leading factor in the price of natural rubber

recently, the natural rubber market has caused waves again. Driven by the continuous rise in crude oil and the possible re tension in the supply of natural rubber in Thailand, Tokyo rubber has hit a new high in the past 26 years, opening up the upward space of natural rubber. The Shanghai rubber market also followed the trend of Japan rubber to get rid of the high-level sharp oscillation, and closed with the daily limit for two consecutive days, which seems to be the prelude to the rise again. Although Shanghai Jiao has not yet formed a breakthrough on the front line of 25800 yuan, the first breakthrough of Japanese Jiao and the positive changes in fundamentals have created a better opportunity for the breakthrough of Shanghai Jiao to carry out physical education innovation

due to the influence of weather and diseases, it is expected that the domestic natural rubber production will decline this year. In the first four months of this year, China strictly controlled the total amount, improved the raw material structure, optimized the tire production in the product structure and the import data of natural rubber. According to the data, the consumption of domestic natural rubber still showed a good growth momentum. Therefore, it can be expected that the external dependence of domestic natural rubber will further increase this year, which greatly increased the sensitivity of domestic natural rubber prices to the supply of natural rubber in Southeast Asia

according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's tire production in April increased by 27% over the same period last year to 51.59 million. From January to April, the tire output reached 180.22 million, an increase of 14% over the same period last year. Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China imported 140000 tons of natural rubber (including latex) in April. From January to April, natural rubber imports totaled 630000 tons, an increase of 26.3% over the same period last year

in terms of supply, due to the delay of domestic cutting and the supply pressure in Southeast Asia, it will not be reflected until late may under normal circumstances. Therefore, the consumption of domestic natural rubber in the past two months mainly depends on the digestion of inventory. The stock of natural rubber in the previous period has continued to decrease since March, and the pressure on the real market has greatly weakened, providing conditions for the squeeze of speculative funds. In addition, due to the high premium of spot price for a time, it also attracted some consumer buying. It can be seen from the sharp rise in the ratio of positions to inventories that the power of Shanghai Rubber Co., Ltd. to squeeze empty is still very sufficient. Although with the continuous rise of the futures price, the spot price has turned into a discount to the recent contract, the premium pattern of the sensor forward contract with angular force on the bearing plate device still exists. The pricing game of forward contracts is essentially a game of whether the output in the peak supply season in Southeast Asia can be normal. Due to the recent rainstorm, the supply of natural rubber production areas in southern Thailand has been blocked, further exacerbating the short-term supply tension. Judging from the planting area and unit yield level of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia in recent years, if the weather is normal, the global supply and demand of natural rubber will still show a slight surplus in 2008. Therefore, the weather factors in the main production areas of Southeast Asia will become the key to determine the trend of natural rubber in the future

the high price of crude oil has led to a sharp rise in the price of synthetic rubber. The price of CIS polybutadiene rubber in China once approached the price of natural rubber, which also prompted some consumer enterprises to increase the proportion of natural rubber consumption. The price ratio between natural rubber and crude oil has reached a low level in the past four years, which has also brought support to the price of natural rubber

technically, Japanese glue has made a breakthrough in defining the smaller absolute value of 325 yen as the valley value/kilogram, and the upside space has been effectively opened. It is expected that it will further challenge new highs driven by fund buying in the near future. At present, Shanghai Jiaotong will have an impact on the line of 25800 yuan. If 25800 yuan is effectively broken through, the upward target will be moved up to the line of 30000 yuan

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